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The New York Times’ Needle lives: The newspaper’s popular election-prediction gauge made its return on Tuesday night — despite the ongoing strike called Monday by the union representing tech ...
Shortly after FiveThirtyEight relocated to The New York Times, Silver introduced his prediction models for the 2010 elections to the U.S. Senate, the U.S. House of Representatives, and state Governorships. Each of these models relied initially on a combination of electoral history, demographics, and polling.
The site notes how when the chance of winning hovers in the 50s it is a "little better than a coin flip for the leading candidate," and its founder, Nate Silver, penned a New York Times op-ed ...
Lichtman said in a video, first reported by The New York Times, that he based his prediction on thirteen keys or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of ...
Since its founding in 1851, The New York Times has endorsed a candidate for president of the United States in every election in the paper's history. The first endorsement was in 1852 for Winfield Scott, and the most recent one was for Kamala Harris in 2024.
Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used: Tossup: No advantage; Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" Lean: Slight advantage; Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR) Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
They never changed the outcome of an election, so we don’t model them.) We simulated a Nov. 8 election 10 million times using our state-by-state averages. In 9.8 million simulations, Hillary Clinton ended up with at least 270 electoral votes. Therefore, we say Clinton has a 98.0 percent chance of becoming president.
He based his prediction off thirteen keys, or “big picture true-false questions that tap into the strength and performance of the White House Party,” according to the New York Times.