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While the markets nailed that outcome, they didn't forecast the popular vote as precisely: On Polymarket at 7 p.m. on Tuesday, Trump had just a 28% chance of winning. Kalshi wagers on the popular ...
Polymarket users have wagered $3.2 billion on the outcome of the election—and the majority of bets are on Trump winning Paolo Confino Updated November 5, 2024 at 11:24 AM
While Kalshi's trading volumes are not public like Polymarket's, they likely pale in comparison, with Bloomberg reporting that Kalshi did about $10 million a month in trading in April 2023, though ...
After all, he did the same thing following the 2020 election, which led to recounts and the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. That means having clearcut election results tomorrow ...
Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan, [3] Polymarket is a prediction market that allows users to gain/lose on the outcome of world events. [4] In January 2022, Polymarket was fined US$1.4 million by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and received a cease and desist order for regulatory violations, including failure to register as a Swap Execution Facility.
Prediction markets show Trump leading Harris in 2024 election odds. The betting platform Polymarket has seen its trading volume surge, with $1.24 billion in October alone.
To briefly recap, Polymarket was kicked out of the U.S. in 2022 for letting U.S. users bet on political prediction markets, which, at the time, was against the law.
Meanwhile, Polymarket shows Trump has a 54% chance of winning the presidential election with Harris trailing behind at just a 45.3% chance. PredictIt’s markets are a little closer.