Search results
Results From The WOW.Com Content Network
[1] [2] The confidence level, degree of confidence or confidence coefficient represents the long-run proportion of CIs (at the given confidence level) that theoretically contain the true value of the parameter; this is tantamount to the nominal coverage probability. For example, out of all intervals computed at the 95% level, 95% of them should ...
In the social sciences, a result may be considered statistically significant if its confidence level is of the order of a two-sigma effect (95%), while in particle physics and astrophysics, there is a convention of requiring statistical significance of a five-sigma effect (99.99994% confidence) to qualify as a discovery. [3]
The table outlines certain areas in the intelligence cycle important to determining analytic confidence. The key areas of the table include the use of a structured method, overall source reliability, source corroboration and agreement, level of expertise on the subject or topic, amount of peer collaboration, task complexity, and time pressure. [2]
In Table 1 of the same work, he gave the more precise value 1.959964. [12] In 1970, the value truncated to 20 decimal places was calculated to be 1.95996 39845 40054 23552... [13] [14] The commonly used approximate value of 1.96 is therefore accurate to better than one part in 50,000, which is more than adequate for applied work.
Table 1: Kent's "words of estimative probability" [2] Certain 100% Give or take 0% The general area of possibility: Almost certain 93% Give or take about 6% Probable 75% Give or take about 12% Chances about even 50% Give or take about 10% Probably not 30% Give or take about 10% Almost certainly not 7% Give or take about 5% Impossible 0 Give or ...
Confidence bands can be constructed around estimates of the empirical distribution function.Simple theory allows the construction of point-wise confidence intervals, but it is also possible to construct a simultaneous confidence band for the cumulative distribution function as a whole by inverting the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, or by using non-parametric likelihood methods.
The Conference Board's Expectations Index dropped to a five-month low of 81.1 in December. That data nears the threshold of 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.
By a similar argument, the numerator values of 3.51, 4.61, and 5.3 may be used for the 97%, 99%, and 99.5% confidence intervals, respectively, and in general the upper end of the confidence interval can be given as (), where is the desired confidence level.