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The San Jacinto Fault Zone and the San Andreas Fault (SAF) accommodate up to 80% of the slip rate between the North American and Pacific plates.The extreme southern portion of the SAF has experienced two moderate events in historical times, while the SJFZ is one of California's most active fault zones and has repeatedly produced both moderate and large events.
The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California, superseding UCERF2. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term.
Earthquake prediction is an immature science – it has not yet led to a successful prediction of an earthquake from first physical principles. Research into methods of prediction therefore focus on empirical analysis, with two general approaches: either identifying distinctive precursors to earthquakes, or identifying some kind of geophysical ...
The prediction is based on research done by dozens of scientists and engineers using seismic studies, historical geological data and new information to identify nearly 500 additional fault lines ...
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The probability of a serious earthquake on various faults has been estimated in the 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast. According to the United States Geological Survey, Southern California experiences nearly 10,000 earthquakes every year. [3] Details on specific faults can be found in the USGS Quaternary Fault and Fold Database.
Word of the forecast spread around the world, with people overseas reporting on the tragedy-to-be -- but Californians remained disaster-free. LA Weekly spoke to a seismologist who says 9.8 wouldn ...
The SJFZ is a 244 km (152 mi)-long right-lateral structure that runs parallel to the San Andreas Fault. [2] The SJFZ is southern California's most seismically active fault zone. It was responsible for a large surface-rupturing earthquake in 1968. The fault zone is highly segmented, consisting of seven individually named segments. [3]