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In probability theory, the conditional expectation, conditional expected value, or conditional mean of a random variable is its expected value evaluated with respect to the conditional probability distribution. If the random variable can take on only a finite number of values, the "conditions" are that the variable can only take on a subset of ...
Under some formulations, it is only equivalent to expected shortfall when the underlying distribution function is continuous at (), the value at risk of level . [2] Under some other settings, TVaR is the conditional expectation of loss above a given value, whereas the expected shortfall is the product of this value with the probability of ...
Law of the unconscious statistician: The expected value of a measurable function of , (), given that has a probability density function (), is given by the inner product of and : [34] [()] = (). This formula also holds in multidimensional case, when g {\displaystyle g} is a function of several random variables, and f {\displaystyle f} is ...
Note that the conditional expected value is a random variable in its own right, whose value depends on the value of . Notice that the conditional expected value of given the event = is a function of (this is where adherence to the conventional and rigidly case-sensitive notation of probability theory becomes important!).
The proposition in probability theory known as the law of total expectation, [1] the law of iterated expectations [2] (LIE), Adam's law, [3] the tower rule, [4] and the smoothing theorem, [5] among other names, states that if is a random variable whose expected value is defined, and is any random variable on the same probability space, then
If the conditional distribution of given is a continuous distribution, then its probability density function is known as the conditional density function. [1] The properties of a conditional distribution, such as the moments , are often referred to by corresponding names such as the conditional mean and conditional variance .
In statistics, the conditional probability table (CPT) is defined for a set of discrete and mutually dependent random variables to display conditional probabilities of a single variable with respect to the others (i.e., the probability of each possible value of one variable if we know the values taken on by the other variables).
Moreover, we can alternatively define the regular conditional probability for an event A given a particular value t of the random variable T in the following manner: P ( A ∣ T = t ) = lim U ⊃ { T = t } P ( A ∩ U ) P ( U ) , {\displaystyle P(A\mid T=t)=\lim _{U\supset \{T=t\}}{\frac {P(A\cap U)}{P(U)}},}