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  2. US 2025 Recession Odds Plummet: Good News Or Warning Sign? - AOL

    www.aol.com/us-2025-recession-odds-plummet...

    In June 2023, the New York Fed’s model — which calculates recession probabilities based on the yield spread between 10-year Treasury bonds and three-month bills — estimated a 70% chance of a ...

  3. One chart shows why an official recession call isn't ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/finance/recession-one-chart-shows...

    So, I don't think the U.S. economy's in recession right now." Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference in Washington, DC, on July 27, 2022.

  4. America dodged a recession. Now there's one last pitfall to ...

    www.aol.com/news/america-dodged-recession-now...

    Recession fears are fading and the job market is looking stronger. That's great news for average Americans and the stock market.

  5. Is a recession on the way? What data says about the economy - AOL

    www.aol.com/finance/recession-way-data-says...

    Right now, he said, a recession is not imminent. But depending on what the Fed does — and how markets respond — a recession could be a possibility in the next couple of years.

  6. Recession fears are fading. Now it’s time for America’s ...

    www.aol.com/finance/recession-fears-fading-now...

    Hopes for avoiding a recession are growing on Wall Street. Now, investors are looking for the coming earnings season to support that optimism. Recession fears are fading.

  7. The odds of a recession are now just 15% because fading ... - AOL

    www.aol.com/finance/odds-recession-now-just-15...

    Like many of his Wall Street peers, Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius has been rethinking the odds of the U.S. economy falling into recession in 2023. With inflation slowly fading from its ...

  8. Recession forecasts have been wrong for years. Here's why a ...

    www.aol.com/finance/recession-forecasts-wrong...

    That may be why there's a rabid interest in projecting when the next recession will come. The benefits of such a call vary. It can help, or hurt, political parties amid an election year. It can ...

  9. The most well-known recession indicator stopped flashing red ...

    www.aol.com/finance/most-well-known-recession...

    When the yield curve, which is the difference between the 10-year and the 2-year, turns positive, or uninverts, right before the Fed starts cutting interest rates, a recession tends to kick in not ...