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The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California, superseding UCERF2. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term.
The 2008 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 2, or UCERF2, is one of a series of earthquake forecasts prepared for the state California by the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (WGCEP), collaboration of the United States Geological Survey, the California Geological Survey, and the Southern California ...
A tectonic earthquake begins by an initial rupture at a point on the fault surface, a process known as nucleation. The scale of the nucleation zone is uncertain, with some evidence, such as the rupture dimensions of the smallest earthquakes, suggesting that it is smaller than 100 m while other evidence, such as a slow component revealed by low-frequency spectra of some earthquakes, suggest ...
An earthquake ruptured off California on Thursday ... Goulet said the USGS analysis suggests there is about a 5% chance that an earthquake greater than magnitude 6.0 could rupture in the area ...
A full fault rupture, estimated to be around a 7.5 magnitude, could kill between 3,000 and 18,000 people, according to US Geological Survey and Southern California Earthquake Center.
Having half a dozen earthquakes with a magnitude 2.5 or greater strike in a single week is not a common occurrence in Southern California.
The same report also estimated there is a 7% probability that an earthquake of magnitude 8.0 or greater will occur in the next 30 years somewhere along the San Andreas Fault. [24] A different USGS study in 2008 tried to assess the physical, social and economic consequences of a major earthquake in southern California.
The earthquake is expected to be similar to the 2011 TÅhoku earthquake and tsunami, because the rupture is expected to be as long as the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake and tsunami. The resulting tsunami might reach heights of approximately 30 meters (100 ft). [ 30 ]