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Many studies have tried to estimate the world's sustainable population for humans, that is, the maximum population the world can host. [5] A 2004 meta-analysis of 69 such studies from 1694 until 2001 found the average predicted maximum number of people the Earth would ever have was 7.7 billion people, with lower and upper meta-bounds at 0.65 and 9.8 billion people, respectively.
At first, the population growth rate is fast, but it begins to slow as the population grows until it levels off to the maximum growth rate, after which it begins to decrease (figure 2). The equation for figure 2 is the differential of equation 1.1 ( Verhulst's 1838 growth model ): [ 13 ]
[citation needed] In Europe average stocking rates vary depending on the country, in 2000 the Netherlands and Belgium had a very high rate of 3.82 GV/ha and 3.19 GV/ha respectively, surrounding countries have rates of around 1 to 1.5 GV/ha, and more southern European countries have lower rates, with Spain having the lowest rate of 0.44 GV/ha.
The world-average ecological footprint in 2016 was 2.75 global hectares per person (22.6 billion in total). With a world-average biocapacity of 1.63 global hectares (gha) per person (12.2 billion in total), this leads to a global ecological deficit of 1.1 global hectares per person (10.4 billion in total). [1]
Some of the earliest academic papers on the subject were researching methods of sustainable fishing. Work of Russel et al. in 1931 observed in particular that ”it appears that the ideal of a stabilised fishery yielding a constant maximum value is impractical.” [1] This work was mostly theoretical. Practical work would begin later, performed ...
Based on this, the UN projected that the world population, 8 billion as of 2023, would peak around the year 2086 at about 10.4 billion, and then start a slow decline, assuming a continuing decrease in the global average fertility rate from 2.5 births per woman during the 2015–2020 period to 1.8 by the year 2100 (the medium-variant projection).
The data from the Global Footprint Network has been used to create the graph below, it shows that since the 1970s the global population is increasingly compromising the Earth's ecosystem. The red section of the graph indicates that the global population have been accruing a global ecological overshoot since 1970.
Scientists say 7,500 tons annually is the sustainable limit, yet the fishing industry continue to harvest 60,000 tons. In wild fisheries, overexploitation or overfishing occurs when a fish stock has been fished down "below the size that, on average, would support the long-term maximum sustainable yield of the fishery". [22]