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An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a survey or a poll (although strictly a poll is an actual election), is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or ...
Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections. [1] [2] Gallup polling has often been accurate in predicting the outcome of presidential elections and the margin of victory for the winner. [3]
George Gallup's American Institute of Public Opinion achieved national recognition by correctly predicting the result to within 1.4%, using a much smaller sample size of just 50,000. [5] Gallup's final poll before the election predicted that Roosevelt would receive 55.7% of the popular vote and 481 electoral votes: the official tally saw ...
For many months, opinion polls have signaled a tight race between Biden and former President Donald Trump. That wasn’t the case at all in 1948 when Republican Thomas E. Dewey maintained a clear ...
The Gallup Poll Cumulative Index: Public Opinion, 1935–1997 (1999) lists 10,000+ questions, but no results; Gallup, George Horace, ed. The Gallup Poll; Public Opinion, 1935–1971 3 vol (1972) summarizes results of each poll. Hawbaker, Becky Wilson. "Taking 'the Pulse of Democracy': George Gallup, Iowa, and the Origin of the Gallup Poll".
The American Association for Public Opinion Research commissioned a study about the performance of polls during the 2008 primary elections and reported several factors that could have distorted ...
Psephology uses historical precinct voting data, public opinion polls, campaign finance information and similar statistical data. The term was coined in 1948 by W. F. R. Hardie (1902–1990) in the United Kingdom after R. B. McCallum, a friend of Hardie's, requested a word to describe the study of elections. Its first documented usage in ...
Many interpret the “margin of error,” commonly reported for public opinion polls, as accounting for all potential errors from a survey. It does not. There are many non-sampling errors, common to all surveys, that can include effects due to question wording and misreporting by respondents.