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Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages over former President Donald Trump — she wins in 57 in 100 simulations ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The presidential race of 2024 is heating up, but who is leading? ... odds and historian's prediction Skip to main content ... ABC News project 538 shows Harris leading in the national polls 48.5% ...
FiveThirtyEight applied two separate models to forecast the 2016 presidential primary elections – polls-only and polls-plus models. The polls-only model relied only on polls from a particular state, while the polls-plus model was based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.
The incumbent president, Joe Biden, won the Democratic primaries. On July 21, 2024, Biden withdrew from the presidential campaign and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, who shortly thereafter became the official nominee of the Democratic Party.
The 2024 presidential election was no different. ... FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had ... But just because the final election odds were forecast as 50-50 between Trump ...
In their final prediction of the 2020 United States presidential election, FiveThirtyEight predicted that Joe Biden had an 89% chance of winning the election; [93] Biden won both the Electoral College and the popular vote. FiveThirtyEight only missed Florida, North Carolina, and Maine's 2nd congressional district in their projections.
Based on 538’s latest analysis of presidential polls, Trump now has the barest advantage in the race, with a 52-in-100 chance to win. Two weeks ago, Harris had a 58-in-100 chance to win. Two ...