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Tellingly, 538’s latest presidential election forecast gives Vice President Kamala Harris the narrowest of advantages over former President Donald Trump — she wins in 57 in 100 simulations ...
From 538’s 2024 presidential election forecast. The year 2024 was one for the history books, and 538's visual journalists and reporters were hard at work explaining the data behind the news with ...
FiveThirtyEight applied two separate models to forecast the 2016 presidential primary elections – polls-only and polls-plus models. The polls-only model relied only on polls from a particular state, while the polls-plus model was based on state polls, national polls and endorsements.
ABC News project 538: The final poll shows Harris with a 48.0% to 46.8% edge over Trump. 270towin: ... 2024 presidential election predictions: Allan Lichtman vs. Nate Silver ...
The 2024 presidential election was no different. ... FiveThirtyEight and Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin each had ... But just because the final election odds were forecast as 50-50 between Trump ...
This article is a collection of statewide opinion polls conducted for the 2024 United States presidential election.The people named in the polls are declared candidates or have received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
This is the first time since the 2004 presidential election that the Democratic nominee won the state with a single digit margin of victory, and Republican nominee Donald Trump's 46% vote share in New Jersey is on par with George W. Bush's performance in 2004 and the closest a Republican has come to winning the state's electoral votes since ...
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...