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The expected return (or expected gain) on a financial investment is the expected value of its return (of the profit on the investment). It is a measure of the center of the distribution of the random variable that is the return. [1] It is calculated by using the following formula: [] = = where
is the expected inflation rate g {\displaystyle g} is the real growth rate in earnings (note that by adding real growth and inflation, this is basically identical to just adding nominal growth) Δ S {\displaystyle \Delta S} is the changes in shares outstanding (i.e. increases in shares outstanding decrease expected returns)
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
You can use VLOOKUP with Google Sheets similar to how the search function is used to find information in Excel. How to use VLOOKUP in Google Sheets to search for specific data and replicate it ...
These equations show that the stock return is influenced by the market (beta), has a firm specific expected value (alpha) and firm-specific unexpected component (residual). Each stock's performance is in relation to the performance of a market index (such as the All Ordinaries). Security analysts often use the SIM for such functions as ...
Geometric Brownian motion is used to model stock prices in the Black–Scholes model and is the most widely used model of stock price behavior. [4] Some of the arguments for using GBM to model stock prices are: The expected returns of GBM are independent of the value of the process (stock price), which agrees with what we would expect in ...
Naked Put Potential Return = (put option price) / (stock strike price - put option price) For example, for a put option sold for $2 with a strike price of $50 against stock LMN the potential return for the naked put would be: Naked Put Potential Return = 2/(50.0-2)= 4.2% The break-even point is the stock strike price minus the put option price.
The investor's utility function is concave and increasing, due to their risk aversion and consumption preference. Analysis is based on single period model of investment. An investor either maximizes their portfolio return for a given level of risk or minimizes their risk for a given return. [2] An investor is rational in nature.