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This distinction is made in the tables below in the area column, where "GB" means Great Britain (England, Scotland and Wales), and "UK" means the entire United Kingdom. Plaid Cymru only stand candidates in Wales and the Scottish National Party only stand candidates in Scotland .
"Green" in these tables refers to combined totals for the green parties in the United Kingdom, namely the Green Party of England and Wales, the Scottish Greens, and, for polls of the entire UK, the Green Party Northern Ireland. The three parties share a commitment to environmental policies, but are independent of one another, with each ...
Across the 12 general elections from 1992 to 2024, the site correctly predicted the party to win the most seats in all but one (1992). They also correctly predicted the outcome, that is, the party winning a majority or a hung parliament, in six elections (majorities in 1997, 2001, 2005, 2015, 2017 (by a majority of only 3), 2019, 2024; hung parliament for 2010).
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Poll damping is when incorrect indicators of public opinion are not used in a forecast model. For instance, early in the campaign, polls are poor measures of the future choices of voters. The poll results closer to an election are a more accurate prediction. Campbell [6] shows the power of poll damping in political forecasting.
Both Reform UK and the Green Party also gained from the Conservatives. Liz Truss lost her own seat of South West Norfolk to Labour. [ 6 ] The only Conservative gain in England was Leicester East , where a split Labour vote between the official labour candidate and former Labour MPs Claudia Webbe and Keith Vaz depressed the Labour vote.
Reform UK placed third in the share of the vote in the 2024 election and had MPs elected to the Commons for the first time. [12] Farage and his party Reform UK have done well in opinion polls in expense of both Labour and the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats made significant gains to reach their highest ever number of seats.
Shares of the vote in general elections since 1832 received by Conservatives [note 1] (blue), Liberals/Liberal Democrats [note 2] (orange), Labour (red) and others (grey) [1] [2] [3] In 1801, the right to vote in the United Kingdom was severely restricted. Universal suffrage, on an equal basis for men and women over the age of 21, was ...