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In null-hypothesis significance testing, the p-value [note 1] is the probability of obtaining test results at least as extreme as the result actually observed, under the assumption that the null hypothesis is correct. [2] [3] A very small p-value means that such an extreme observed outcome would be very unlikely under the null hypothesis.
Thus an approximate p-value can be obtained from a normal probability table. For example, if z = 2.2 is observed and a two-sided p-value is desired to test the null hypothesis that ρ = 0 {\displaystyle \rho =0} , the p-value is 2 Φ(−2.2) = 0.028 , where Φ is the standard normal cumulative distribution function .
The probability of direction has a direct correspondence with the frequentist one-sided p-value through the formula = and to the two-sided p-value through the formula = (). Thus, a two-sided p -value of respectively .1, .05, .01 and .001 would correspond approximately to a pd of 95%, 97.5%, 99.5% and 99.95%. [ 10 ]
In 2016, the American Statistical Association (ASA) published a statement on p-values, saying that "the widespread use of 'statistical significance' (generally interpreted as 'p ≤ 0.05') as a license for making a claim of a scientific finding (or implied truth) leads to considerable distortion of the scientific process". [57]
The p-value was introduced by Karl Pearson [6] in the Pearson's chi-squared test, where he defined P (original notation) as the probability that the statistic would be at or above a given level. This is a one-tailed definition, and the chi-squared distribution is asymmetric, only assuming positive or zero values, and has only one tail, the ...
p-value; Statistical significance test: A predecessor to the statistical hypothesis test (see the Origins section). An experimental result was said to be statistically significant if a sample was sufficiently inconsistent with the (null) hypothesis. This was variously considered common sense, a pragmatic heuristic for identifying meaningful ...
Psychological statistics is application of formulas, theorems, numbers and laws to psychology. Statistical methods for psychology include development and application statistical theory and methods for modeling psychological data. These methods include psychometrics, factor analysis, experimental designs, and Bayesian statistics. The article ...
The p-value of the test statistic is computed either numerically or by looking it up in a table. If the p-value is small enough (usually p < 0.05 by convention), then the null hypothesis is rejected, and we conclude that the observed data does not follow the multinomial distribution.