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Only they know whether their answer reflects the toss of the coin or their true experience. It is very important to assume that people who get heads will answer truthfully, otherwise the surveyor is not able to speculate. Half the people—or half the questionnaire population—get tails and the other half get heads when they flip the coin.
The St. Petersburg paradox or St. Petersburg lottery [1] is a paradox involving the game of flipping a coin where the expected payoff of the lottery game is infinite but nevertheless seems to be worth only a very small amount to the participants. The St. Petersburg paradox is a situation where a naïve decision criterion that takes only the ...
To choose one out of three, the previous is either reversed (the odd coin out is the winner) or a regular two-way coin flip between the two remaining players can decide. The three-way flip is 75% likely to work each time it is tried (if all coins are heads or all are tails, each of which occur 1/8 of the time due to the chances being 0.5 by 0.5 ...
(Note: r is the probability of obtaining heads when tossing the same coin once.) Plot of the probability density f(r | H = 7, T = 3) = 1320 r 7 (1 − r) 3 with r ranging from 0 to 1. The probability for an unbiased coin (defined for this purpose as one whose probability of coming down heads is somewhere between 45% and 55%)
When flipping a fair coin 21 times, the outcome is equally likely to be 21 heads as 20 heads and then 1 tail. These two outcomes are equally as likely as any of the other combinations that can be obtained from 21 flips of a coin. All of the 21-flip combinations will have probabilities equal to 0.5 21, or 1 in 2,097,152. Assuming that a change ...
Example of the optimal Kelly betting fraction, versus expected return of other fractional bets. In probability theory, the Kelly criterion (or Kelly strategy or Kelly bet) is a formula for sizing a sequence of bets by maximizing the long-term expected value of the logarithm of wealth, which is equivalent to maximizing the long-term expected geometric growth rate.
the second player must choose (not-2)-1-2 where (not-2) is the opposite of the second choice of the first player. An intuitive explanation for this result is that in any case that the sequence is not immediately the first player's choice, the chances for the first player getting their sequence-beginning, the opening two choices, are usually the ...
Consider again the gambler who wins $1 when a coin comes up heads and loses $1 when the coin comes up tails. Suppose now that the coin may be biased, so that it comes up heads with probability p. If p is equal to 1/2, the gambler on average neither wins nor loses money, and the gambler's fortune over time is a martingale.