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The basic principles of cross-impact analysis date back to the late 1960s, but the original processes were relatively simple and were based on a game design. [1] Eventually, advanced techniques, methodologies, and programs were developed to apply the principles of cross-impact analysis, and the basic method is now applied in futures think tanks, business settings, and the intelligence community.
Financial risk modeling is the use of formal mathematical and econometric techniques to measure, monitor and control the market risk, credit risk, and operational risk on a firm's balance sheet, on a bank's accounting ledger of tradeable financial assets, or of a fund manager's portfolio value; see Financial risk management.
Risk is the lack of certainty about the outcome of making a particular choice. Statistically, the level of downside risk can be calculated as the product of the probability that harm occurs (e.g., that an accident happens) multiplied by the severity of that harm (i.e., the average amount of harm or more conservatively the maximum credible amount of harm).
ISO 31000 is a set of international standards for risk management.It was developed in November 2009 by International Organization for Standardization. [1] The goal of these standards is to provide a consistent vocabulary and methodology for assessing and managing risk, resolving the historic ambiguities and differences in the ways risk are described.
Another approach to model risk is the worst-case, or minmax approach, advocated in decision theory by Gilboa and Schmeidler. [22] In this approach one considers a range of models and minimizes the loss encountered in the worst-case scenario. This approach to model risk has been developed by Cont (2006). [23]
The Gordon–Loeb model is an economic model that analyzes the optimal level of investment in information security. The benefits of investing in cybersecurity stem from reducing the costs associated with cyber breaches. The Gordon-Loeb model provides a framework for determining how much to invest in cybersecurity, using a cost-benefit approach.
In finance, arbitrage pricing theory (APT) is a multi-factor model for asset pricing which relates various macro-economic (systematic) risk variables to the pricing of financial assets. Proposed by economist Stephen Ross in 1976, [ 1 ] it is widely believed to be an improved alternative to its predecessor, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM ...