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The odds of a bigger cut rose slightly to 54% following the release of the PCE data. The consensus among Fed officials outlined last week is for two more 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024.
PCE inflation increased year over year by 2.4% in November. The PCE data for December will be released on Jan. 31. The Fed cut interest rates by a quarter-point in December.
On a month-over-month basis, "core" PCE rose 0.2%, faster than the 0.1% seen in November. The annual and monthly figures were in line with Wall Street expectations.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 2.6% in December from the year before, heating up from November’s 2.4% increase, according to new Commerce Department data released Friday.
The PCE price index (PePP), also referred to as the PCE deflator, PCE price deflator, or the Implicit Price Deflator for Personal Consumption Expenditures (IPD for PCE) by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and as the Chain-type Price Index for Personal Consumption Expenditures (CTPIPCE) by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), is a United States-wide indicator of the average increase ...
In tandem with the inflation data, the report also showed that personal income rose 0.3% month-over-month in November, slowing from October's 0.5% increase and missing expectations of 0.4%.
Today, however, the Federal Reserve targets the average level personal consumption expenditures price index, not Core CPI, primarily because it covers a larger portion of the economy and so is a more general measure of price inflation than the CPI. [26]
This system regroups commodity indexes to create aggregate PPIs according to the type of buyer and the amount of physical processing or assembly products have undergone. The FD-ID system replaced the PPI "stage-of-processing" (SOP) system as PPI's primary aggregation model with the release of data for January 2014.