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Based on current models, we predict: under [BAU] increase of global mean temperature during the [21st] century of about 0.3 °C per decade (with an uncertainty range of 0.2 to 0.5 °C per decade); this is greater than that seen over the past 10,000 years; under other ... scenarios which assume progressively increasing levels of controls, rates ...
Working Group I, dealing with the scientific aspects of climate, stated that carbon dioxide remains the most important contributor to anthropogenic forcing of climate change; projections of future global mean temperature change and sea level rise confirm the potential for human activities to alter the Earth's climate to an extent unprecedented in human history; and the long time-scales ...
The growth rate from 1990 to 1999 averaged 1.1% per year. Between the years 2000–2009, growth in CO 2 emissions from fossil fuel burning was, on average, 3% per year, which exceeds the growth estimated by 35 of the 40 SRES scenarios (34 if the trend is computed with end points instead of a linear fit). [20]
RCP 2.6 is a "very stringent" pathway. [6] According to the IPCC, RCP 2.6 requires that carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions start declining by 2020 and go to zero by 2100.It also requires that methane emissions (CH 4) go to approximately half the CH 4 levels of 2020, and that sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions decline to approximately 10% of those of 1980–1990.
The report's 200-plus authors looked at five warming scenarios and concluded that all will see the world exceed the 1.5-degree threshold set out by the 2015 Paris climate in the 2030s — sooner ...
Increase in frequency and intensity of extreme events with global warming Name of event Climate in 1850–1900 1 °C warming 1.5 °C warming 2 °C warming 4 °C warming 1 in 10 years heatwave: Normal: 2.8 times more often, 1.2 °C hotter: 4.1 times more often, 1.9 °C hotter: 5.6 times more often, 2.6 °C hotter: 9.4 times more often, 5.1 °C ...
Without immediate curbs, temperatures are set to follow the red track, and increase between 3.2 and 5.4 degrees Celsius by 2100. The green line shows how we can minimize warming if emissions immediately drop -- a highly unlikely scenario. Global fossil fuel and cement emissions, in gigatons of carbon dioxide
The four RCPs – originally RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are labelled after the expected changes in radiative forcing values from the year 1750 [24] [25] to the year 2100 (2.6, 4.5, 6, and 8.5 W/m 2, respectively). [26] [27] [28] The IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) began to use these four pathways for climate modeling and research ...