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The cumulative impact probability was estimated to be around 0.004%, a risk lower than that of asteroid 2004 VD 17, which once again became (temporarily) the greatest-risk object. A 2053 approach to Earth still posed a minor risk of impact, and Apophis was still rated at level one on the Torino scale for this orbit. 2004-12-28: 12:23 GMT
On December 24, 2004, 370 m (1,210 ft) asteroid 99942 Apophis was assigned a 4 on the Torino scale, the highest rating given to date, for an impact in April 2029. [19] As observations were collected over the next three days, the calculated chance of impact first increased to as high as 2.7%, [ 20 ] then fell back to zero. [ 21 ]
Yes, the asteroid has little more than a 1% probability of slamming into Earth in 2032. And yes, that makes it the only one of more-than 37,000 known large space rocks near Earth with such odds.
[13] [22] This is the second-highest Torino scale rating an asteroid has ever reached, behind 99942 Apophis which briefly ranked Torino scale level 4 in late 2004. [22] NASA gives a Palermo Technical Impact Hazard Scale rating of −0.35 for 2024 YR 4, which corresponds to an impact hazard of 44.7% of the background hazard level. [7]
The asteroid 2024 YR4 is now rated at Level 3 out of 10 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, ... that probability will go to zero." A similar scenario unfolded in 2004 with Apophis, an asteroid ...
Further observations eventually allowed astronomers in 2021 to rule out the possibility of an impact when Apophis makes the close flyby to Earth in April 2029. There's also no risk during another ...
On December 24, 2004, 370 m (1,210 ft) asteroid 99942 Apophis (at the time yet unnamed and therefore known only by its provisional designation 2004 MN 4) was assigned a 4 on the Torino scale, the highest rating given to date, as the information available at the time translated to a 1.6% chance of Earth impact in April 2029. [93]
The asteroid's size and risk make it a 3 out of 10 on the Torino Scale, which categorizes potential impact threats, with 10 being a certain impact that threatens the future of civilization.