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Credibility theory is a branch of actuarial mathematics concerned with determining risk premiums. [1] To achieve this, it uses mathematical models in an effort to forecast the ( expected ) number of insurance claims based on past observations.
In credibility theory, a branch of study in actuarial science, the Bühlmann model is a random effects model (or "variance components model" or hierarchical linear model) used to determine the appropriate premium for a group of insurance contracts. The model is named after Hans Bühlmann who first published a description in 1967.
The Bornhuetter–Ferguson method was introduced in the 1972 paper "The Actuary and IBNR", co-authored by Ron Bornhuetter and Ron Ferguson. [4] [5] [7] [8]Like other loss reserving techniques, the Bornhuetter–Ferguson method aims to estimate incurred but not reported insurance claim amounts.
An actuary is a professional with advanced mathematical skills who deals with the measurement and management of risk and uncertainty. [1] These risks can affect both sides of the balance sheet and require asset management, liability management, and valuation skills. [2]
Another example is the use of actuarial models to assess the risk of sex offense recidivism. Actuarial models and associated tables, such as the MnSOST-R, Static-99, and SORAG, have been used since the late 1990s to determine the likelihood that a sex offender will re-offend and thus whether he or she should be institutionalized or set free. [9]
For example, a person gets a stomach ache and different doctors all give the same diagnosis. [5]: 71 Test-retest reliability assesses the degree to which test scores are consistent from one test administration to the next. Measurements are gathered from a single rater who uses the same methods or instruments and the same testing conditions. [4]
That is, if portfolio always has better values than portfolio under almost all scenarios then the risk of should be less than the risk of . [2] E.g. If is an in the money call option (or otherwise) on a stock, and is also an in the money call option with a lower strike price.
Actuarial science – discipline that applies mathematical and statistical methods to assess risk in the insurance and finance industries. What type of thing is ...