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“The idea that this stuff could actually get smarter than people — a few people believed that,” Hinton told the New York Times. “But most people thought it was way off. “But most people ...
While regular computers can frequently err in problem-solving, Google claims Willow actually gets smarter as it uses more qubits, which are the units of computation in quantum computers.
Though he quit Google in 2023 after realising computers could become smarter than people far sooner than he and other experts had expected, Hinton said the company itself acted very responsibly.
The attainment of greater-than-human intelligence between 2005 and 2030 was predicted by Vinge in 1993. [4] A singularity in 2021 was predicted by Yudkowsky in 1996. [22] Human-level AI around 2029 and the singularity in 2045 was predicted by Kurzweil in 2005. [36] [37] He reaffirmed these predictions in 2024 in The Singularity is Nearer. [38]
The second thesis is that advances in artificial intelligence will render humans unnecessary for the functioning of the economy: human labor declines in relative economic value if robots are easier to cheaply mass-produce then humans, more customizable than humans, and if they become more intelligent and capable than humans.
The risk of human extinction from AGI has been the topic of many debates, but there is also the possibility that the development of AGI would lead to a permanently flawed future. Notably, it could be used to spread and preserve the set of values of whoever develops it.
"If you define AGI (artificial general intelligence) as smarter than the smartest human, I think it's probably next year, within two years," Musk said when asked about the timeline for development
Kurzweil argues the creation of humans through evolution suggests that humans should be able to build something more intelligent than themselves. He believes pattern recognition , as demonstrated by vision , and knowledge representation , as seen in language , are two key components of intelligence.