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The Refinitiv Equal Weight Commodity Index (formerly known as the Continuous Commodity Index) is a major US barometer of commodity prices. The index comprises 17 commodity futures that are continuously rebalanced: cocoa, coffee, copper, corn, cotton, crude oil, gold, heating oil, live cattle, live hogs, natural gas, orange juice, platinum, silver, soybeans, Sugar No. 11, and wheat.
This means the expected spot price on expiry is higher than the price of the futures contract. Backwardation very seldom arises in money commodities like gold or silver. In the early 1980s, there was a one-day backwardation in silver while some metal was physically moved from COMEX to CBOT warehouses.
The Black formula is similar to the Black–Scholes formula for valuing stock options except that the spot price of the underlying is replaced by a discounted futures price F. Suppose there is constant risk-free interest rate r and the futures price F(t) of a particular underlying is log-normal with constant volatility σ.
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The Coffee, Sugar and Cocoa Exchange (CSCE) was founded in 1882 as the Coffee Exchange in the City of New York. Sugar futures were added in 1914, and, on September 28, 1979, [ 1 ] the New York Coffee and Sugar Exchange merged with the New York Cocoa Exchange (which in turn had been founded in 1925) to form CSCE.
The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit. The efficient market hypothesis suggests that stock prices reflect all currently available information and any price changes that are not based on newly revealed information thus are inherently unpredictable. Others disagree and those with this viewpoint possess ...