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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
In The Black Swan, Nassim Nicholas Taleb gives the example of risk models according to which the Black Monday crash would correspond to a 36-σ event: the occurrence of such an event should instantly suggest that the model is flawed, i.e. that the process under consideration is not satisfactorily modeled by a normal distribution.
We cannot validly argue (or induce) from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would require a logical fallacy such as, for example, affirming the consequent. [ 3 ] Popper's idea to solve this problem is that while it is impossible to verify that every swan is white, finding a single black swan shows that not every swan is ...
The observation of these black swans contradicts the law "All swans are white", but even if there were no black swans, the law would still be falsifiable, because identifying a swan and observing the color black would remain possible. Informally, a statement is falsifiable if some observation might show it to be false.
In July 2016, Swain criticized Black Lives Matter, stating it was "a Marxist organization" and "a very destructive force in America." [54] [55] She reiterated that it was "pure Marxism" and concluded that it "needs to go". [54] [55] In October 2020, a video recording was released which showed her comparing Black Lives Matter to the Ku Klux Klan ...
The concept of wild cards comes close to the black swan theory described by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his 2007 book The Black Swan. Black swans however can be seen as events that somehow are written in destiny (or the stars) and will occur anyhow. [7] The title refers to the "black swans" that existed already for millions of years in Australia ...
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
The Cloward–Piven strategy is a political strategy outlined in 1966 by American sociologists and political activists Richard Cloward and Frances Fox Piven.The strategy aims to utilize "militant anti poverty groups" to facilitate a "political crisis" by overloading the welfare system via an increase in welfare claims, forcing the creation of a system of guaranteed minimum income and ...