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FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.
538’s 2024 presidential election forecast model showing Democrat Kamala Harris’s and Republican Donald Trump’s chances of winning.
An updating average of 2020 presidential general election polls, accounting for each poll’s quality, sample size and recency. Polling averages are adjusted based on state and national polls, which means candidates’ averages can shift even if no new polls have been added to this page. Read more about the methodology.
Georgia Senate Runoff: How Raphael Warnock Secured Democrats A 51st Senate Seat. By FiveThirtyEight. Filed under 2022 Election. Nov. 18, 2022.
With the Senate and governors races (mostly) settled, and only about a dozen House races still unprojected, we’ve shuttered this page and switched to our uncalled races live blog.
What Election Day looks like based on polls, fundraising, past voting patterns and more. What Election Day looks like when we add experts’ ratings to the Classic forecast. Latest forecasts and polls for the 2022 midterm elections from ABC News’s FiveThirtyEight.
Our 2020 forecasts — presidential, Senate, House — are all now officially frozen, meaning we won’t be ingesting any new polls or updating the odds in any race. Instead, follow along on our Election Day Live blog as we track results in real-time.
The Latest Updates On The 2024 Republican Presidential Primary. Ryan Best, Cooper Burton, Aaron Bycoffe, Chris Groskopf, Alex Kimball, Humera Lodhi, Mary Radcliffe and Maya Sweedler. Aug 24, 2023.
Poll type. An updating average, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects.
FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society.