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Informally, in frequentist statistics, a confidence interval (CI) is an interval which is expected to typically contain the parameter being estimated. More specifically, given a confidence level (95% and 99% are typical values), a CI is a random interval which contains the parameter being estimated % of the time. [1][2] The confidence level ...
For a confidence level, there is a corresponding confidence interval about the mean , that is, the interval [, +] within which values of should fall with probability . Precise values of z γ {\displaystyle z_{\gamma }} are given by the quantile function of the normal distribution (which the 68–95–99.7 rule approximates).
A confidence band is used in statistical analysis to represent the uncertainty in an estimate of a curve or function based on limited or noisy data. Similarly, a prediction band is used to represent the uncertainty about the value of a new data-point on the curve, but subject to noise. Confidence and prediction bands are often used as part of ...
The Student's t distribution plays a role in a number of widely used statistical analyses, including Student's t test for assessing the statistical significance of the difference between two sample means, the construction of confidence intervals for the difference between two population means, and in linear regression analysis.
A confidence interval states there is a 100γ% confidence that the parameter of interest is within a lower and upper bound. A common misconception of confidence intervals is 100γ% of the data set fits within or above/below the bounds, this is referred to as a tolerance interval, which is discussed below.
If one makes the parametric assumption that the underlying distribution is a normal distribution, and has a sample set {X 1, ..., X n}, then confidence intervals and credible intervals may be used to estimate the population mean μ and population standard deviation σ of the underlying population, while prediction intervals may be used to estimate the value of the next sample variable, X n+1.
By a similar argument, the numerator values of 3.51, 4.61, and 5.3 may be used for the 97%, 99%, and 99.5% confidence intervals, respectively, and in general the upper end of the confidence interval can be given as (), where is the desired confidence level.
The dependence of the confidence intervals on sample size is further illustrated below. For N = 10, the 95% confidence interval is approximately ±13.5789 standard deviations. For N = 100 the 95% confidence interval is approximately ±4.9595 standard deviations; the 99% confidence interval is approximately ±140.0 standard deviations.