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In statistics, propagation of uncertainty (or propagation of error) is the effect of variables' uncertainties (or errors, more specifically random errors) on the uncertainty of a function based on them.
The analysis of errors computed using the global positioning system is important for understanding how GPS works, and for knowing what magnitude errors should be expected. The Global Positioning System makes corrections for receiver clock errors and other effects but there are still residual errors which are not corrected.
Uncertainty propagation is the quantification of uncertainties in system output(s) propagated from uncertain inputs. It focuses on the influence on the outputs from the parametric variability listed in the sources of uncertainty. The targets of uncertainty propagation analysis can be:
The delta method was derived from propagation of error, and the idea behind was known in the early 20th century. [1] Its statistical application can be traced as far back as 1928 by T. L. Kelley. [2] A formal description of the method was presented by J. L. Doob in 1935. [3] Robert Dorfman also described a version of it in 1938. [4]
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For example, if the mean height in a population of 21-year-old men is 1.75 meters, and one randomly chosen man is 1.80 meters tall, then the "error" is 0.05 meters; if the randomly chosen man is 1.70 meters tall, then the "error" is −0.05 meters.
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