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Robert Shiller's plot of the S&P composite real price–earnings ratio and interest rates (1871–2012), from Irrational Exuberance, 2d ed. [1] In the preface to this edition, Shiller warns that "the stock market has not come down to historical levels: the price–earnings ratio as I define it in this book is still, at this writing [2005], in the mid-20s, far higher than the historical average
The cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, commonly known as CAPE, [1] Shiller P/E, or P/E 10 ratio, [2] is a stock valuation measure usually applied to the US S&P 500 equity market. It is defined as price divided by the average of ten years of earnings ( moving average ), adjusted for inflation. [ 3 ]
The P/E method is perhaps the most commonly used valuation method in the stock brokerage industry. [9] [10] By using comparison firms, a target price/earnings (or P/E) ratio is selected for the company, and then the future earnings of the company are estimated. The valuation's fair price is simply estimated earnings times target P/E.
When you buy stock, you're essentially buying a tiny piece of the company it represents. Understanding how profitable the company is in relation to its stock price can be an important consideration...
The average P/E ratio for U.S. stocks from 1900 to 2005 is 14, [citation needed] which equates to an earnings yield of over 7%. The Fed model is an example of a system that uses the earnings yield as a method to assess aggregate stock market valuation levels, although it is disputed.
The average price-to-earnings ratio for these stocks is 16.1, well below the P/E multiples of 27.7 and 26.8 for the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF, respectively.