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The betting site Polymarket has emerged as a hot topic in the 2024 presidential race. Trump's odds of winning are at 66% there based on bets. National polls generally show the race tied.
Days before the election, Polymarket odds showed Trump had a 60% chance of winning. The electorate took notice: Kalshi and Polymarket soared to the top of Apple's App Store on Tuesday evening.
While the odds of a Trump win have shrunk on some prediction markets, Polymarket shows a 58% chance as of Monday of the former president winning the election over Harris.. In late October ...
By contrast, on August 5 Polymarket showed 68% odds Kamala Harris would pick Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate, with Minnesota governor Tim Walz at 23% odds. Harris selected Walz the next day. [15] [16] On October 7, 2024, Polymarket showed a spike in the odds Donald Trump would win the 2024 election, to 53.3%, with a ...
The presidential election betting odds gives Donald Trump a 61 percent chance to beat Vice President Kamala Harris in next month's election.
However, a late-October rally in Trump’s odds was a result of aberrant betting behavior from just 1% of Polymarket’s users, according to Bloomberg. The financial world was just as glued to the ...
(The same study notes that election betting fell out of favor after 1940, as scientific polling grew more sophisticated and reliable.) But just like polls, prediction markets are far from perfect.
Here are some of the most popular bets on Kalshi and Polymarket now that the election is over. Super Bowl Champion 2025 The Chargers and Chiefs last faced off in January 2024.