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In the most basic runs created formula: = (+) + where H is hits, BB is base on balls, TB is total bases and AB is at-bats.. This can also be expressed as = = where OBP is on-base percentage, SLG is slugging average, AB is at-bats and TB is total bases, however OBP includes the hit-by-pitch while the previous RC formula does not.
The name Log5 is due to Bill James [1] but the method of using odds ratios in this way dates back much farther. This is in effect a logistic rating model and is therefore equivalent to the Bradley–Terry model used for paired comparisons , the Elo rating system used in chess and the Rasch model used in the analysis of categorical data.
Building upon the run batted in (RBI) statistic, the game-winning RBI was defined in MLB rules as "the RBI that gives a club the lead it never relinquishes." [2] For example: A batter on the winning team brought his team ahead 3–2 from a 2–2 tie at some point during the game and his team later led 5–2 as a result of the other batters.
The positional adjustment is calculated as follows, where adj is a run value dependent on the player's position: +12.5 for a catcher, −12.5 for a first baseman, +2.5 for a second or third baseman, +7.5 for a shortstop, −7.5 for a left fielder, +2.5 for a center fielder, −7.5 for a right fielder, and −17.5 for a designated hitter.
Win probability is a statistical tool which suggests a sports team's chances of winning at any given point in a game, based on the performance of historical teams in the same situation. [1] The art of estimating win probability involves choosing which pieces of context matter.
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A team with a lower winning percentage may lead (in terms of games behind) a team with a higher winning percentage. [4] For example, Team A at 6–4 would lead Team B at 2–1 by a half-game when calculating games behind. However, Team B has the better winning percentage at .667, compared to .600 for Team A.
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