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In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States' Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. [1] It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job-vacancy data in addition to unemployment data.
The ultimate question for investors is whether the current yield curve disinversion will be sustained or if interest rate volatility picks up and the spread between short-term and long-term bonds ...
The NBER officially calls U.S. recessions, and data from Bank of America shows why this group won't be in a rush to declare the U.S. economy in recession.
The indicator is trend-following, and based on averages, so by its nature it doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become established. Coppock designed the indicator (originally called the "Trendex Model" [1]) for the S&P 500 index, and it has been applied to similar stock indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average ...
Ease of movement (EMV) [1] is an indicator used in technical analysis to relate an asset's price change to its volume.Ease of Movement was developed by Richard W. Arms, Jr. and highlights the relationship between volume and price changes and is particularly useful for assessing the strength of a trend.
A weak July jobs report just triggered one of the most well-known, and historically accurate, recession indicators: the Sahm Rule.But the rule’s inventor, Claudia Sahm, pushed back against the ...
The detrended price oscillator (DPO) is an indicator in technical analysis that attempts to eliminate the long-term trends in prices by using a displaced moving average so it does not react to the most current price action. This allows the indicator to show intermediate overbought and oversold levels effectively. [1] [2]