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Many studies have tried to estimate the world's sustainable population for humans, that is, the maximum population the world can host. [5] A 2004 meta-analysis of 69 such studies from 1694 until 2001 found the average predicted maximum number of people the Earth would ever have was 7.7 billion people, with lower and upper meta-bounds at 0.65 and 9.8 billion people, respectively.
At first, the population growth rate is fast, but it begins to slow as the population grows until it levels off to the maximum growth rate, after which it begins to decrease (figure 2). The equation for figure 2 is the differential of equation 1.1 ( Verhulst's 1838 growth model ): [ 13 ]
Globally, the rate of population growth has declined from a peak of 2.2% per year in 1963. [9] Population growth alongside increased consumption is a driver of environmental concerns, such as biodiversity loss and climate change, [10] [11] due to overexploitation of natural resources for human development. [12]
The UN Population Division projects the world population, which is 7.8 billion as of 2020, to level out around 2100 at 10.9 billion [56] [57] A 2020 study published by The Lancet from researchers funded by the Global Burden of Disease Study promotes a lower growth scenario, projecting that world population will peak in 2064 at 9.7 billion and ...
The UN Population Division report of 2022 projects world population to continue growing after 2050, although at a steadily decreasing rate, to peak at 10.4 billion in 2086, and then to start a slow decline to about 10.3 billion in 2100 with a growth rate at that time of -0.1%.
The logistic growth curve depicts how population growth rate and carrying capacity are inter-connected. As illustrated in the logistic growth curve model, when the population size is small, the population increases exponentially. However, as population size nears carrying capacity, the growth decreases and reaches zero at K. [20]
The Limits to Growth (LTG) is a 1972 report [2] that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. [3] The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the Earth and human systems.
Rates are the average annual number of births or deaths during a year per 1,000 persons; these are also known as crude birth or death rates. Column four is from the UN Population Division [3] and shows a projection for the average natural increase rate for the time period shown using the medium fertility variant. Blank cells in column four ...