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A black swan (Cygnus atratus) in Australia. The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on a Latin expression which presumed that black swans did ...
We cannot validly argue (or induce) from "here is a white swan" to "all swans are white"; doing so would require a logical fallacy such as, for example, affirming the consequent. [3] Popper's idea to solve this problem is that while it is impossible to verify that every swan is white, finding a single black swan shows that not every
For example, one might argue that it is valid to use inductive inference in the future because this type of reasoning has yielded accurate results in the past. However, this argument relies on an inductive premise itself—that past observations of induction being valid will mean that future observations of induction will also be valid.
BCA doubled-down on its recession call for 2025, previously predicting that US stocks could drop by as much as 26% this year.
The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable is a 2007 book by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who is a former options trader. The book focuses on the extreme impact of rare and unpredictable outlier events—and the human tendency to find simplistic explanations for these events, retrospectively. Taleb calls this the Black Swan theory.
A perfect storm led to Bayesian sinking, experts say. The combination of unlikely factors that could have contributed to the ship's fate constituted a "black swan event," Matthew Schanck, chairman ...
The ludic fallacy, proposed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan , is "the misuse of games to model real-life situations". [1] Taleb explains the fallacy as "basing studies of chance on the narrow world of games and dice". [2] The adjective ludic originates from the Latin noun ludus, meaning "play, game, sport, pastime". [3]
Each of the last eight U.S. recessions dating back to the 1960s has come after the 10-year Treasury yield fell below the three-month Treasury yield, for example.