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99942 Apophis (provisional designation 2004 MN 4) is a near-Earth asteroid and a potentially hazardous object, 450 metres (1,480 ft) by 170 metres (560 ft) in size, [3] that caused a brief period of concern in December 2004 when initial observations indicated a probability of 2.7% that it would hit Earth on Friday, April 13, 2029.
The probability of an impact is the integral of the probability distribution over the cross section of Earth in the B-plane. When the close approach of a newly discovered asteroid is first put on a risk list with a significant risk, it is normal for the risk to first increase, regardless whether the potential impact will eventually be ruled out ...
Currently, no impacts are predicted (the single highest probability impact currently listed is ~7 m asteroid 2010 RF 12, which is due to pass Earth in September 2095 with only a 10% predicted chance of impacting; its size is also small enough that any damage from an impact would be minimal). [71] [72]
A similar scenario unfolded in 2004 with Apophis, an asteroid initially projected to have a 2.7 percent chance of striking Earth in 2029. Further observations ruled out an impact. "City killer ...
The probability of impact crossed 1% in late January and reached 1.9% Wednesday. The latest calculations Friday show the odds have increased a little more to 2.3%. ... when the asteroid Apophis ...
A big one, though, can wreak havoc far beyond its initial impact site. The massive Chicxulub asteroid that 66 million years ago slammed into what is now the Yucatán peninsula in Mexico released ...
This is a list of asteroids that have impacted Earth after discovery and orbit calculation that predicted the impact in advance. As of December 2024 [update] , all of the asteroids with predicted impacts were under 5 m (16 ft) in size that were discovered just hours before impact, and burned up in the atmosphere as meteors .
These images represent radar observations of Apophis on March 8, 9 and 10, 2021, as it made its last close approach before its 2029 Earth encounter.