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In macroeconomics, the Sahm rule, or Sahm rule recession indicator, is a heuristic measure by the United States' Federal Reserve for determining when an economy has entered a recession. [1] It is useful in real-time evaluation of the business cycle and relies on monthly unemployment data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).
A new indicator says there's a 40% chance the US is in a recession that started as early as March. The measure builds on the Sahm rule, using job-vacancy data in addition to unemployment data.
The yield curve's positive interest rate spread represents its first disinversion since September 2019 and the first time the yield curve was positive since July 1, 2022, according to data from ...
The U.S. unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% in June from 4% in the prior month, nearly triggering a reliable recession indicator. While unemployment is still historically low, its rate of ...
The indicator is trend-following, and based on averages, so by its nature it doesn't pick a market bottom, but rather shows when a rally has become established. Coppock designed the indicator (originally called the "Trendex Model" [1]) for the S&P 500 index, and it has been applied to similar stock indexes like the Dow Jones Industrial Average ...
A balance sheet recession is a type of economic recession that occurs when high levels of private sector debt cause individuals or companies to collectively focus on saving by paying down debt rather than spending or investing, causing economic growth to slow or decline.
The Sahm Rule, developed by economist Claudia Sahm, says that the US economy has entered a recession if the three-month average of the national unemployment rate has risen 0.5% or more from the ...
Technical analysts also widely use market indicators of many sorts, some of which are mathematical transformations of price, often including up and down volume, advance/decline data and other inputs. These indicators are used to help assess whether an asset is trending, and if it is, the probability of its direction and of continuation.