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Bayes' theorem (alternatively Bayes' law or Bayes' rule, after Thomas Bayes) gives a mathematical rule for inverting conditional probabilities, allowing us to find the probability of a cause given its effect. [1] For example, if the risk of developing health problems is known to increase with age, Bayes' theorem allows the risk to an individual ...
In probability theory, the birthday problem asks for the probability that, in a set of n randomly chosen people, at least two will share a birthday. The birthday paradox refers to the counterintuitive fact that only 23 people are needed for that probability to exceed 50%. The birthday paradox is a veridical paradox: it seems wrong at first ...
Coupon collector's problem. In probability theory, the coupon collector's problem refers to mathematical analysis of "collect all coupons and win" contests. It asks the following question: if each box of a given product (e.g., breakfast cereals) contains a coupon, and there are n different types of coupons, what is the probability that more ...
Buffon's needle was the earliest problem in geometric probability to be solved; [2] it can be solved using integral geometry. The solution for the sought probability p, in the case where the needle length l is not greater than the width t of the strips, is. This can be used to design a Monte Carlo method for approximating the number π ...
Monty Hall problem. In search of a new car, the player chooses a door, say 1. The game host then opens one of the other doors, say 3, to reveal a goat and offers to let the player switch from door 1 to door 2. The Monty Hall problem is a brain teaser, in the form of a probability puzzle, based nominally on the American television game show Let ...
Balls into bins problem. The balls into bins (or balanced allocations) problem is a classic problem in probability theory that has many applications in computer science. The problem involves m balls and n boxes (or "bins"). Each time, a single ball is placed into one of the bins. After all balls are in the bins, we look at the number of balls ...
Bertrand expressed the solution as. where is the total number of voters and is the number of voters for the first candidate. He states that the result follows from the formula. where is the number of favourable sequences, but "it seems probable that such a simple result could be shown in a more direct way".
An example calibration plot. Calibration can be assessed using a calibration plot (also called a reliability diagram). [3] [5] A calibration plot shows the proportion of items in each class for bands of predicted probability or score (such as a distorted probability distribution or the "signed distance to the hyperplane" in a support vector ...