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Considering the DJIA as an example, the basis of calculating implied open is the price of a "DJX index option futures contract".This is not the price of the DJIA itself but rather the current ticker price of an option issued by the Chicago Board Options Exchange.
In finance, a stock market index future is a cash-settled futures contract on the value of a particular stock market index. The turnover for the global market in exchange-traded equity index futures is notionally valued, for 2008, by the Bank for International Settlements at US$130 trillion.
The result is that a trader who believed the market would rally could simply acquire Dow Futures and make a huge amount of profit as a result of the leverage factor; if the market were to rise to 14,000, for instance, from the current 10,000, each Dow Futures contract would gain $20,000 in value (4,000 point rise x 5 leverage factor = $20,000).
Stock market prediction is the act of trying to determine the future value of a company stock or other financial instrument traded on an exchange.The successful prediction of a stock's future price could yield significant profit.
Compared to their futures counterparts, forwards (especially Forward Rate Agreements) need convexity adjustments, that is a drift term that accounts for future rate changes. In futures contracts, this risk remains constant whereas a forward contract's risk changes when rates change. [11]
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