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Microsoft's Aurora system offers global 10-day weather and 5-day air pollution (CO 2, NO, NO 2, SO 2, O 3, and particulates) forecasts with claimed accuracy similar to physics-based models, but at orders-of-magnitude lower cost. Aurora was trained on more than a million hours of data from six weather/climate models. [83] [84]
In time series analysis, a fan chart is a chart that joins a simple line chart for observed past data, by showing ranges for possible values of future data together with a line showing a central estimate or most likely value for the future outcomes.
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[1] [2] [3] The Rapid Refresh is run at the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). It is based on the framework of the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); the Global Forecast System (GFS) provides the boundary parameters. The grid points are spaced every 13 kilometres (8.1 mi), with 50 vertical intervals extending ...
2. Click the weather icon in the top-left corner of the page. 3.Select the Settings icon next to current city name - The Location Settings menu will appear. 4. Select Add New Location. 5. In the City or ZIP code search bar enter the ZIP code or city you wish to track 6. Select the city name to add the location.
An example of a forecast product from the GFS, in this case a 96-hour forecast of 850 mb geopotential height and temperature. The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a global numerical weather prediction system containing a global computer model and variational analysis run by the United States' National Weather Service (NWS).
The outlooks issued are for Day 1, Day 2, and Days 3–8. The Day 1 product is issued at 4:00 a.m. Central Time and is updated at 1700Z, and is valid from 1200Z to 1200Z the following day. The Day 2 outlook is issued at 1000Z and is updated at 2000Z for the forecast period of 1200Z to 1200Z the following day.
Probabilistic forecasting summarizes what is known about, or opinions about, future events. In contrast to single-valued forecasts (such as forecasting that the maximum temperature at a given site on a given day will be 23 degrees Celsius, or that the result in a given football match will be a no-score draw), probabilistic forecasts assign a probability to each of a number of different ...