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In probability theory, the conditional expectation, conditional expected value, or conditional mean of a random variable is its expected value evaluated with respect to the conditional probability distribution. If the random variable can take on only a finite number of values, the "conditions" are that the variable can only take on a subset of ...
Law of total expectation – the expected value of the conditional expected value of X given Y is the same as the expected value of X; Median – indicated by in a drawing above; Nonlinear expectation – a generalization of the expected value; Population mean; Predicted value
The conditional probability of A given X can thus be treated as a random variable Y with outcomes in the interval [,]. From the law of total probability, its expected value is equal to the unconditional probability of A.
Note that the conditional expected value is a random variable in its own right, whose value depends on the value of . Notice that the conditional expected value of given the event = is a function of (this is where adherence to the conventional and rigidly case-sensitive notation of probability theory becomes important!).
Some writers on probability call this the "conditional covariance formula" [2] or use other names. Note: The conditional expected values E( X | Z) and E( Y | Z) are random variables whose values depend on the value of Z. Note that the conditional expected value of X given the event Z = z is a function of z.
The proposition in probability theory known as the law of total expectation, [1] the law of iterated expectations [2] (LIE), Adam's law, [3] the tower rule, [4] and the smoothing theorem, [5] among other names, states that if is a random variable whose expected value is defined, and is any random variable on the same probability space, then
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The conditional distribution contrasts with the marginal distribution of a random variable, which is its distribution without reference to the value of the other variable. If the conditional distribution of Y {\displaystyle Y} given X {\displaystyle X} is a continuous distribution , then its probability density function is known as the ...