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The overconfidence effect is a well-established bias in which a person's subjective confidence in their judgments is reliably greater than the objective accuracy of those judgments, especially when confidence is relatively high. [1] [2] Overconfidence is one example of a miscalibration of subjective probabilities.
Overconfidence effect, a tendency to have excessive confidence in one's own answers to questions. For example, for certain types of questions, answers that people rate as "99% certain" turn out to be wrong 40% of the time. [5] [44] [45] [46] Planning fallacy, the tendency for people to underestimate the time it will take them to complete a ...
[6] For example, the representativeness heuristic is defined as "The tendency to judge the frequency or likelihood" of an occurrence by the extent of which the event "resembles the typical case." [13] The "Linda Problem" illustrates the representativeness heuristic (Tversky & Kahneman, 1983 [14]). Participants were given a description of "Linda ...
In a 2011 article, Kahneman recounted the story of his discovery of the illusion of validity. After completing an undergraduate psychology degree and spending a year as an infantry officer in the Israeli Army, he was assigned to the army's Psychology Branch, where he helped evaluate candidates for officer training using a test called the Leaderless Group Challenge.
Anchoring results in a particularly strong bias when estimates are stated in the form of a confidence interval. An example is where people predict the value of a stock market index on a particular day by defining an upper and lower bound so that they are 98% confident the true value will fall in that range.
In a 1993 paper, Peter Juslin maintained that "(1) when the objects of judgement are selected randomly from a natural environment, people are well-calibrated; (2) when more and less difficult item samples are created by selecting items with more and less familiar contents, i.e. in a way that does not affect the validity of the cues, no hard ...
Image source: The Motley Fool. Visa (NYSE: V) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Jan 30, 2025, 5:00 p.m. ET. Contents: Prepared Remarks. Questions and Answers. Call Participants ...
Galef gives examples of what does and does not indicate a scout mindset, suggests ways to notice and counteract bias, and outlines strategies for quantifying and labeling levels of confidence. [ 9 ] Part III, "Thriving Without Illusions", argues that the supposed benefits of overconfidence and self-deception are not convincing reasons to shy ...