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Real options valuation, also often termed real options analysis, [1] (ROV or ROA) applies option valuation techniques to capital budgeting decisions. [2] A real option itself, is the right—but not the obligation—to undertake certain business initiatives, such as deferring, abandoning, expanding, staging, or contracting a capital investment project. [3]
The first application to option pricing was by Phelim Boyle in 1977 (for European options). In 1996, M. Broadie and P. Glasserman showed how to price Asian options by Monte Carlo. An important development was the introduction in 1996 by Carriere of Monte Carlo methods for options with early exercise features.
Fig. 1 Typical project cash flow with uncertainty. The mathematical equation for the DM Method is shown below. The method captures the real option value by discounting the distribution of operating profits at R, the market risk rate, and discounting the distribution of the discretionary investment at r, risk-free rate, before the expected payoff is calculated.
See Asset pricing for a listing of the various models here. As regards (2), the implementation, the most common approaches are: Closed form, analytic models: the most basic of these are the Black–Scholes formula and the Black model. Lattice models (Trees): Binomial options pricing model; Trinomial tree; Monte Carlo methods for option pricing
The approach arises since the evolution of the option value can be modelled via a partial differential equation (PDE), as a function of (at least) time and price of underlying; see for example the Black–Scholes PDE. Once in this form, a finite difference model can be derived, and the valuation obtained.
To use these models, traders input information such as the stock price, strike price, time to expiration, interest rate and volatility to calculate an option’s theoretical price. To find implied ...
Note that whereas equity options are more commonly valued using other pricing models such as lattice based models, for path dependent exotic derivatives – such as Asian options – simulation is the valuation method most commonly employed; see Monte Carlo methods for option pricing for discussion as to further – and more complex – option ...
The fuzzy pay-off method for real option valuation (FPOM or pay-off method) [1] is a method for valuing real options, developed by Mikael Collan, Robert Fullér, and József Mezei; and published in 2009. It is based on the use of fuzzy logic and fuzzy numbers for the creation of the possible pay-off distribution of a project (real