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If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A). Polling in the 2020 election was considerably less accurate than in the 2016 election, and possibly more inaccurate than in any election since 1996. [1]
Chart of Democratic-candidate lead over Republican candidate in final poll and results by year, 1936 to 2016. Gallup was the first polling organization to conduct accurate opinion polling for United States presidential elections.
This is a list of statewide public opinion polls that have been conducted relating to the 2020 United States presidential election.The persons named in the polls were declared candidates or received media speculation about their possible candidacy.
As the chart below shows, the states with the most accurate polls are generally also the ones that have been polled most often. Just like your childhood piano teacher taught you, practice makes ...
It is informed by turnout in recent elections, details on votes cast in advance and – after polls close – early returns. The estimate may fluctuate as election officials report additional results and AP learns more about how many voters have cast a ballot.
Assessing the accuracy of polls is much more complicated than it looks.
The 7-point lead was a shift from a September 2020 Iowa Poll that showed the race in the state was tied. It aligned closely with the final results when Trump won Iowa by 8 points (53% to 45%).
State or district EV PVI [1] 2016 result 2020 result Cook Oct 28, 2020 [2] Inside Elections Oct 28, 2020 [3] Sabato Nov 2, 2020 [4] Politico Nov 2, 2020 [5] Real Clear Politics