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Expected shortfall (ES) is a risk measure—a concept used in the field of financial risk measurement to evaluate the market risk or credit risk of a portfolio. The "expected shortfall at q% level" is the expected return on the portfolio in the worst q % {\displaystyle q\%} of cases.
In general, the factors driving the prices of financial securities are equity prices, foreign exchange rates, commodity prices, interest rates, correlation and volatility. By generating future scenarios for each risk factor, we can infer changes in portfolio value and reprice the portfolio for different "states of the world".
The 5% Value at Risk of a hypothetical profit-and-loss probability density function. Value at risk (VaR) is a measure of the risk of loss of investment/capital.It estimates how much a set of investments might lose (with a given probability), given normal market conditions, in a set time period such as a day.
The expected return (or expected gain) on a financial investment is the expected value of its return (of the profit on the investment). It is a measure of the center of the distribution of the random variable that is the return. [1] It is calculated by using the following formula:
The recovery rate is defined as 1 minus the LGD, the share of an asset that is recovered when a borrower defaults. [ 1 ] Loss given default is facility-specific because such losses are generally understood to be influenced by key transaction characteristics such as the presence of collateral and the degree of subordination.
Under some formulations, it is only equivalent to expected shortfall when the underlying distribution function is continuous at (), the value at risk of level . [2] Under some other settings, TVaR is the conditional expectation of loss above a given value, whereas the expected shortfall is the product of this value with the probability of ...
Expected loss is the sum of the values of all possible losses, each multiplied by the probability of that loss occurring. In bank lending (homes, autos, credit cards, commercial lending, etc.) the expected loss on a loan varies over time for a number of reasons. Most loans are repaid over time and therefore have a declining outstanding amount ...
If the expected loss amount is less than the provisions, the supervisor must consider if this is a true picture of reality, and, if so, then include the difference in Tier II capital. The expected losses for equity exposures under the PD/LGD approach is deducted 50% from Tier I and 50% from Tier II capital.