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The weighted mean in this case is: ¯ = ¯ (=), (where the order of the matrix–vector product is not commutative), in terms of the covariance of the weighted mean: ¯ = (=), For example, consider the weighted mean of the point [1 0] with high variance in the second component and [0 1] with high variance in the first component.
It is a measure used to evaluate the performance of regression or forecasting models. It is a variant of MAPE in which the mean absolute percent errors is treated as a weighted arithmetic mean. Most commonly the absolute percent errors are weighted by the actuals (e.g. in case of sales forecasting, errors are weighted by sales volume). [3]
In this case, models are not specified and the estimates for the beta weights suffer from omitted variable bias. That is, the beta weights may change from one sample to the next, a situation sometimes called the problem of the bouncing betas. It is this problem with bouncing betas that makes unit-weighted regression a useful method.
For example, let the design effect, for estimating the population mean based on some sampling design, be 2. If the sample size is 1,000, then the effective sample size will be 500. It means that the variance of the weighted mean based on 1,000 samples will be the same as that of a simple mean based on 500 samples obtained using a simple random ...
The method of mean weighted residuals solves (,,, …,) = by imposing that the degrees of freedom are such that: ((,,, …,),) =is satisfied. Where the inner product (,) is the standard function inner product with respect to some weighting function () which is determined usually by the basis function set or arbitrarily according to whichever weighting function is most convenient.
A solution to this problem is to use an alternate design strategy, e.g. stratified sampling. Weighting, when correctly applied, can potentially improve the efficiency and reduce the bias of unweighted estimators. One very early weighted estimator is the Horvitz–Thompson estimator of the mean. [3]
For normally distributed random variables inverse-variance weighted averages can also be derived as the maximum likelihood estimate for the true value. Furthermore, from a Bayesian perspective the posterior distribution for the true value given normally distributed observations and a flat prior is a normal distribution with the inverse-variance weighted average as a mean and variance ().
One supposed problem with SMAPE is that it is not symmetric since over- and under-forecasts are not treated equally. The following example illustrates this by applying the second SMAPE formula: Over-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 110 give SMAPE = 4.76%; Under-forecasting: A t = 100 and F t = 90 give SMAPE = 5.26%.