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Scenario planning differs from contingency planning, sensitivity analysis and computer simulations. [33] Contingency planning is a "What if" tool, that only takes into account one uncertainty. However, scenario planning considers combinations of uncertainties in each scenario.
The scenario approach or scenario optimization approach is a technique for obtaining solutions to robust optimization and chance-constrained optimization problems based on a sample of the constraints. It also relates to inductive reasoning in modeling and decision-making.
A scenario is not a specific forecast of the future, but a plausible description of what might happen. Scenarios are like stories built around carefully constructed plots based on trends and events. They assist in selection of strategies, identification of possible futures, making people aware of uncertainties and opening up their imagination ...
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Backcasting is a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backwards to identify policies and programs that will connect that specified future to the present. [1] The fundamentals of the method were outlined by John B. Robinson from the University of Waterloo in 1990. [ 2 ]
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All strategic plans should be built upon a grounded, validated and accepted set of strategic assumptions. Any strategic plan or decision is only as good as the strategic assumptions upon which it is based. Strategic assumptions surface and are usually identified when scenario planning is undertaken during a strategic planning process.
Lump sum vs. annuity: 6 factors to consider when making your decision. Everyone’s financial situation is different, so it’s important to consider a few key factors — such as tax implications ...