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Climate models vary in complexity. For example, a simple radiant heat transfer model treats the Earth as a single point and averages outgoing energy. This can be expanded vertically (radiative-convective models) and horizontally. More complex models are the coupled atmosphere–ocean–sea ice global climate models.
This activity enabled those climate models, outside the major modeling centers to perform research of relevance to climate scientists preparing the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC-AR4). For the CMIP3 a list of 20 different experiments were proposed, [3] and the PCMDI kept the documentation of all the global climate model involved. [4]
[9] [2] This means that for a given amount of carbon emissions, a related amount of global warming can reasonably be expected. [ 6 ] [ 14 ] The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report , which is the most thorough estimate as of 2021, [ 3 ] suggests a likely TCRE of 1.4 °C–2.2 °C per Tt C (or 1000 Pg C), a narrowing of the 0.8° to 2.5 °C per Tt C ...
A transient climate simulation is a mode of running a global climate model (GCM) in which a period of time (typically 1850–2100) is simulated with continuously-varying concentrations of greenhouse gases so that the climate of the model represents a realistic mode of possible change in the real world.
Economic and energy models, such as World3 and POLES, quantify the effects of these parameters. Climate change scenarios exist at a national, regional or global scale. Countries use scenario studies in order to better understand their decisions. This is useful when they are developing their adaptation plans or Nationally Determined Contributions.
As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control.
Parameterization in a weather or climate model is a method of replacing processes that are too small-scale or complex to be physically represented in the model by a simplified process. This can be contrasted with other processes—e.g., large-scale flow of the atmosphere—that are explicitly resolved within the models.
The approach presents global warming as a problem which can be attacked using commercially available technologies to reduce CO 2 emissions. Selecting a set of mitigation strategies to create a stabilization triangle is a planning framework for identifying possible interventions for the reduction of emissions.