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538, originally rendered as FiveThirtyEight, is an American website that focused on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging in the United States. [2] Founder Nate Silver left in 2023, taking the rights to his forecasting model with him to his website Silver Bulletin.
This is a list of nationwide public opinion polls that were conducted relating to the general election for the 2020 United States presidential election.If multiple versions of polls are provided, the version among likely voters (LV) is prioritized, then registered voters (RV), then adults (A).
This is the second consecutive presidential election in which Pennsylvania voted to the right of the nation. Previously, it had not done so since 1948 . With Ohio , Florida , and Iowa backing the losing candidate for the first time since 1960 , 1992 , and 2000 respectively, this election established Pennsylvania, Wisconsin , and Michigan as the ...
As of Oct. 17 at 10:30 a.m. Eastern, Harris leads Trump 48.1 percent to 47.5 percent in 538’s polling average of the state — virtually the same margin Democrats won the state by in 2020.
The Reality of Trump vs. Harris Right Now. ... By late July of 2020, Trump’s popularity as measured by the 538 average was somewhat improved but still significantly high at 55.6 percent ...
On average, in 2020, Biden beat Trump by 3.8 points in the states that have been polled for Harris versus Trump so far. Her average polling lead in those states today is 1.1 points.
Eventually, Trump won the Presidency after winning in the seven swing states (Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin and Nevada), and winning the popular vote for the first time (unlike his 2016 victory and his 2020 defeat).
But in each election since then, Nevada has inched right. In 2020, Biden won nationally by 4 points, ... Harris leads by about 1 point in 538's polling average of the state.*