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All have the same trend, but more filtering leads to higher r 2 of fitted trend line. The least-squares fitting process produces a value, r-squared (r 2), which is 1 minus the ratio of the variance of the residuals to the variance of the dependent variable. It says what fraction of the variance of the data is explained by the fitted trend line.
A trend line could simply be drawn by eye through a set of data points, but more properly their position and slope is calculated using statistical techniques like linear regression. Trend lines typically are straight lines, although some variations use higher degree polynomials depending on the degree of curvature desired in the line.
The above equations are efficient to use if the mean of the x and y variables (¯ ¯) are known. If the means are not known at the time of calculation, it may be more efficient to use the expanded version of the α ^ and β ^ {\displaystyle {\widehat {\alpha }}{\text{ and }}{\widehat {\beta }}} equations.
Although polynomial regression fits a nonlinear model to the data, as a statistical estimation problem it is linear, in the sense that the regression function E(y | x) is linear in the unknown parameters that are estimated from the data. For this reason, polynomial regression is considered to be a special case of multiple linear regression. [1]
Weighted least squares (WLS), also known as weighted linear regression, [1] [2] is a generalization of ordinary least squares and linear regression in which knowledge of the unequal variance of observations (heteroscedasticity) is incorporated into the regression.
If the trend can be assumed to be linear, trend analysis can be undertaken within a formal regression analysis, as described in Trend estimation. If the trends have other shapes than linear, trend testing can be done by non-parametric methods, e.g. Mann-Kendall test, which is a version of Kendall rank correlation coefficient.
Standard method like Gauss elimination can be used to solve the matrix equation for .A more numerically stable method is provided by QR decomposition method. Since the matrix is a symmetric positive definite matrix, can be solved twice as fast with the Cholesky decomposition, while for large sparse systems conjugate gradient method is more effective.
In finance, a trend line is a bounding line for the price movement of a security. It is formed when a diagonal line can be drawn between a minimum of three or more price pivot points. It is formed when a diagonal line can be drawn between a minimum of three or more price pivot points.