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ECMWF aims to provide accurate medium-range global weather forecasts out to 15 days and seasonal forecasts out to 12 months. [11] Its products are provided to the national weather services of its member states and co-operating states as a complement to their national short-range and climatological activities, and those national states use ECMWF's products for their own national duties, in ...
It comprises a spectral atmospheric model with a terrain-following vertical coordinate system coupled to a 4D-Var data assimilation system.In 1997 the IFS became the first operational forecasting system to use 4D-Var. [2] Both ECMWF and Météo-France use the IFS to make operational weather forecasts, but using a different configuration and resolution (the Météo-France configuration is ...
Bottom: The spread of National Hurricane Center multi-model ensemble forecast. Ensemble forecasting is a method used in or within numerical weather prediction. Instead of making a single forecast of the most likely weather, a set (or ensemble) of forecasts is produced.
The ensemble variant of the GEM is known as the Global Ensemble Prediction System (GEPS). It has 20 members (plus control) and runs out 16 days, the same range as the American global forecast system. The GEPS runs alongside the GFS ensemble to form the North American Ensemble Forecast System. A regional ensemble prediction system (REPS ...
Starting in 1992 with ensemble forecasts prepared by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction, model ensemble forecasts have been used to help define the forecast uncertainty and to extend the window in which numerical weather forecasting is viable farther into the ...
Between 2000 and 2002, the Environmental Modeling Center ran the Aviation (AVN) model for shorter range forecasts and the Medium Range Forecast (MRF) model at longer time ranges. During this time, the AVN model was extended to the end of the forecast period, eliminating the need of the MRF and thereby replacing it.
Along with the NWS's Global Forecast System, which runs out to 16 days, the ECMWF's Integrated Forecast System (IFS) and the CMC's Global Environmental Multiscale Model (GEM), both of which run out 10 days, and the UK Met Office's Unified Model, which runs out to 7 days, it is one of five synoptic scale medium-range models in general use.
The North American Ensemble Forecast System (NAEFS) is a joint project involving the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) in Canada, the National Weather Service (NWS) in the United States, and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (NMSM) in Mexico providing numerical weather prediction ensemble guidance for the 1- to 16-day forecast period. [1]