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More precisely, a study's defined significance level, denoted by , is the probability of the study rejecting the null hypothesis, given that the null hypothesis is true; [4] and the p-value of a result, , is the probability of obtaining a result at least as extreme, given that the null hypothesis is true. [5]
In his highly influential book Statistical Methods for Research Workers (1925), Fisher proposed the level p = 0.05, or a 1 in 20 chance of being exceeded by chance, as a limit for statistical significance, and applied this to a normal distribution (as a two-tailed test), thus yielding the rule of two standard deviations (on a normal ...
The confidence interval can be expressed in terms of statistical significance, e.g.: "The 95% confidence interval represents values that are not statistically significantly different from the point estimate at the .05 level." [20] Interpretation of the 95% confidence interval in terms of statistical significance.
The choice of a significance level may thus be somewhat arbitrary (i.e. setting 10% (0.1), 5% (0.05), 1% (0.01) etc.) As opposed to that, the false positive rate is associated with a post-prior result, which is the expected number of false positives divided by the total number of hypotheses under the real combination of true and non-true null ...
In the social sciences, a result may be considered statistically significant if its confidence level is of the order of a two-sigma effect (95%), while in particle physics and astrophysics, there is a convention of requiring statistical significance of a five-sigma effect (99.99994% confidence) to qualify as a discovery.
Suppose the data can be realized from an N(0,1) distribution. For example, with a chosen significance level α = 0.05, from the Z-table, a one-tailed critical value of approximately 1.645 can be obtained. The one-tailed critical value C α ≈ 1.645 corresponds to the chosen significance level.
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When large numbers of tests are performed, some produce false results of this type; hence 5% of randomly chosen hypotheses might be (erroneously) reported to be statistically significant at the 5% significance level, 1% might be (erroneously) reported to be statistically significant at the 1% significance level, and so on, by chance alone.