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Most election predictors for the 2020 United States presidential election used: Tossup: No advantage; Tilt: Advantage that is not quite as strong as "lean" Lean: Slight advantage; Likely: Significant, but surmountable, advantage (highest rating given by CBS News and NPR) Safe or solid: Near-certain chance of victory
In early August 2020, FiveThirtyEight announced that for their 2020 general election forecast they had designed a new graphical structure. This included going with modular structure, a "ball swarm" design for the chart depicting each candidate's chances, and the addition of a "forecast mascot " named Fivey Fox.
Two weeks ago, 538's forecast of the presidential election gave Vice President Kamala Harris just a 58-in-100 chance of defeating former President Donald Trump on Nov. 5. You might be tempted to ...
The following graph depicts the standing of each candidate in the poll aggregators from September 2019 to November 2020. Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic nominee, had an average polling lead of 7.9 percentage points over incumbent President Donald Trump, the Republican nominee.
The New York Times "FiveThirtyEight: Nate Silver's Political Calculus" commenced on August 25, 2010, with the publication of "New Forecast Shows Democrats Losing 6 to 7 Senate Seats". [51] From that date the blog focused almost exclusively on forecasting the outcomes of the 2010 U.S. Senate and U.S. House of Representatives elections as well as ...
Silver Bulletin, the independent site of former 538 chief Nate Silver, ... Clinton led the polling averages by 6.0 points, and in 2020 Biden led by 7.4. Election forecasts. National polls, however ...
Election savant Nate Silver blasted FiveThirtyEight for suspending its presidential forecasts — offering up a “theory” that the website he founded is waiting for Vice President Kamala Harris ...
Analysts at The New York Times speculated that the shift in 2020 occurred because Hillary Clinton, as the former First Lady of Arkansas, had a home state advantage in 2016. [ 51 ] Continuing on this trend, Trump carried Arkansas again by a margin of 27.62%, a 0.7% increase from 26.92% four years earlier in 2016.